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OH-Gov Debate - Blackwell (R) vs. Strickland (D) - Analysis

A Clear Win for Ken Blackwell
--by Steve Mancuso and Michael Maffie

Last night in Cincinnati the two main candidates for Governor, Republican Ken Blackwell and Democrat Ted Strickland, participated in a one-hour debate that focused by design exclusively on the issue of Ohio's economy.

We judged Blackwell a clear winner over Strickland.

Ken Blackwell is a 58-year-old black American.  He is currently the Ohio Secretary of State, and has formerly held the offices of the Mayor of Cincinnati and the US Ambassador to the UN Human Rights Commission.

Ted Strickland is a 65-year-old white American.  He is currently a Representative in the United State Congress.  He has formerly been a college professor, psychiatrist, and a Methodist Minister.

A panel of three journalists alternated questions to the two candidates.  Each candidate had 90 seconds to answer, then their opponent had 60 seconds to comment, followed by a 30 second rebuttal from the first candidate.

Niether candidate was particularly impressive.  It was established that Ted Strickland was "no Roy Rogers" and that Ken Blackwell was "no Ronald Reagan."  Both candidates "grew up middle-class."

Blackwell's performance was much more aggressive, perhaps reflecting a bit of desperation as he trails in the race.  Polls show Strickland with a hefty double-digit lead.

In last night's debate, Blackwell successfully advanced two main themes: (1) that his economic proposals would work quickly, while Strickland's would "take at least a generation" and (2) that because Strickland had "not delivered" for his own district why should voters assume he would be able to deliver for Ohio as a whole.

Despite repeated challenges to do so, Strickland was surprisingly unable/unwilling to frame a concise answer demonstrating that his economic proposals could work quickly.  In fact he seemed to reinforce Backwell's argument by talking about  education policies targeting one-to-four year old's.

Blackwell announced in his 3-minute opening statement that he had a "100-day" proposal. He outlined detailed proposals for cutting taxes on businesses (which he confusing twice referred to as "300 businesses" then later said "300,000" which presumably was what he meant).

As a measure of how spectacularly unpopular the current GOP Governor Bob Taft remains  both men assumed the mantle of change in their opening statements.  Blackwell declared an "agenda of change."  Strickland said "Ohio needs change."

Blackwell successfully distanced himself from the Taft administration for the most part, even though he has been an integral part of it. For instance, when asked how he could solve GOP credibility problems he said: "Because I'll be a Republican for a change."  [It's probably worth noting for those who miss the obvious irony that Bob Taft's grandfather was a GOP Senator who was known as "Mr. Republican."]  

Blackwell consistently challenged Strickland to identify specific and near-term economic policies that he suported.  Strickland basically failed to do that.

Blackwell also pointed out that Strickland's Congressional district had the highest unemployment rate in Ohio.  He challenged Strickland to "name two businesses" that he had brought to his district since going to Congress.

Strickland was shockingly unable to defend his record in his own district.  One of the three examples of his "successes" was a retraining program for people who lost their jobs from a plant closing.

Strickland was able to create some questions Blackwell's flat-tax proposal.  Blackwell said it was necessary to "get wealthy people to stay in and invest in Ohio."

On health care it was difficult to judge a difference between the positions of the two candidates.  Blackwell, again, had an edge in specificity.

Strickland, who generally has a very flat, even-keeled presentation, grew most animated over the issue of urban policy - which produced his best moment. Blackwell took the opportunity to mention his support for "protecting property rights" - an idea which resonates with Ohio voters due to recent judicial rulings concerning takings.

Overall, Blackwell turned in the superior performance.  Strickland was lackluster, at best.  That may turn out to be sufficient for the Democrat, as he runs out the clock with a his wide lead.  But on this night Blackwell was more specific, more aggressive and had more support for his claims.

 

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