O'Malley, as Baltimore mayor, is well-known in the city and in its suburbs. He is, therefore, likely to win the city's vote and fare relatively well--not necessarily win--in the counties surrounding the city. However, not as well-known beyond the Baltimore area, he needs to project who he is to the rest of the state. He needs to excite likely Democratic voters in Montgomery and Prince George's counties--both of which he will likely carry. He needs to attract some voters away from Ehrlich in other regions of the state, making the race in some counties at least competitive. O'Malley's personality has always been a major asset. He seems to hope debates--many of them--will help him project that personality to parts of the state beyond metropolitan Baltimore.

Doing so is especially important because Ehrlich is--as in 2002--emphasizing his humble roots in working-class Baltimore County and his affection for such things as the American flag, little league baseball, and crabbing in his advertisements. In 2002, helped along by media stories, Ehrlich projected a very likeable persona. O'Malley needs to counter this persona with his own.

Ehrlich, on the other hand, is trying to avoid debates, especially ones he either cannot control the post-debate discussion of or have weeks to recover from. The reason for Ehrlich's reluctance is rooted in 2002. He and Democratic candidate Kathleen Kennedy Townsend debated once. Based on the events that evening at Morgan State University in Baltimore, Townsend out-performed Ehrlich. Her performance revitalized her sinking campaign for a short period and did end her decline in the polls. Townsend's performance also may have, in the long-run, cost her moderate voters as it solidified liberal support. So, the Ehrlich campaign was able to claim victory even though, that night, Ehrlich seemed quite defeated. He also probably felt ambushed: not only was he not expecting how aggressive Townsend would be, he seemed to be upset by how hostile toward him and his African-American running mate Michael Steele the audience at the NAACP-sponsored debate was.

Bad memories of the 2002 debate probably are behind the Ehrlich's campaign's reported insistence that the debates not be aired on live television and that the NAACP not be a sponsor. Ehrlich survived the 2002 debate. Although he probably cannot avoid debating in 2006, he can try to manage scheduling, media coverage, and sponsorship matters so as to prevent anything close to a replay of 2002.