Sunday there will be another presidential primary debate. Yes, yet another round of witnessing democracy at work, history in the making. More likely the GOP debate in Florida simply another round of filling the 24/7 news cycle, venerating the host's importance, and seeking "sounds bites" for a small class of pundits? Voters are invited to watch, but only at the margin. The 2007 primary cycle seems more about special interest sponsors, hype, and new technical possibilities.
When do candidates find time to campaign, let along reflect. Simply put, there are too many debates. Even journalists and bloggers observed in Matt Towrey's Inside The Numbers: Too Many Candidates, Too Many Debates.
And here's the real kicker: our surveys show that virtually no one is watching these little gems. So all the rooms filled with spinmeisters and all the column inches wasted on these non-debate debates are a relative waste of time.
Depending on how you count there have been thirty plus events that are or resemble debates. We're routinely reminded that a very "long campaign season" that more debates make sense; the reality is the opposite. This campaign is one of the shortest in my memory with campaigns scrambling for exposure before the holidays and "the decision" in mid-January. (New Hampshire in December?). So there are debates and more debates, one after the other. Even a venue like debatescoop.com, where we're relish debates, the beat seems relentless and at time pointless.
With the general election still more than a year away, Sunday's Republican primary debate in Orlando will mark the 23rd among candidates seeking the White House.
So far as the records show, that tops the largest number in primary history.
"It's hard even for the professionals to watch all of them," said Larry Sabato, who writes books on presidential politics. "Everyone in the system jokes about the 487 forums and debates this year. I started to get the sense in the last debate they were running out of questions."
Still to come:
OCTOBER 2007
21 GOP presidential debate in Orlando, Florida
21 Democratic presidential debate in Manchester, N.H.
25 Iowa AARP & IPTV host a Republican presidential forum in Davenport
30 MSNBC airs a Democratic presidential debate from Philadelphia, Pa. NOVEMBER 2007
2 2008 Democratic presidential candidate debate in Las Vegas
6 MSNBC telecasts a GOP presidential debate at Iowa State Univ.
15 Democratic presidential debate in Las Vegas, DECEMBER 2007
3 Republican NPR Radio-Web only debate in Des Moines, Historical Society of Iowa
4 Democratic NPR Radio-Web only debate in Des Moines, Historical Society of Iowa.
7 National Presidential Caucus
10 Democratic presidential debate in Los Angeles, Calif.
17 Democratic presidential debate in Boston, Mass. JANUARY 2008
5 2008 Republican presidential debate in Johnston, Iowa
6 2008 Democratic presidential debate in Johnston, Iowa
9 Republican presidential debate in Des Moines, Iowa
10 Democratic presidential debate in Des Moines, Iowa
21 2008 Democratic presidential candidate debate in Las Vegas
23 Republican presidential debate in Florida
25 Democratic presidential debate in Florida
What happens when there are more debates than audience? My perspective is informed by negotiating six debates in the 2004 Montana Governor race. Six was too many, but the Montana tradition had been to hold endless debates. In a preceding Governor contest -Marc Racicot - the debates numbered somewhere in the 30+ range. But at that point who was counting . . . or listening. The simple answer to the latter: by the end, no one. Arguably the same is happening in the 2007 primary debates.
Ratings for presidential debates have been dropping over the past decade, a trend some experts link to oversaturating. None of this year's debates have drawn at least 3 million viewers, and some have had fewer than 1 million. The AFL-CIO forum on MSNBC in August drew 980,000, according to Nielsen Media.
For comparison, last week nearly 20 million people tuned in for "Dancing with the Stars."
With so many debates there needs to be some reason to listen, a hook to build an audience. The last GOP affair in Dearborn, MI had the "excitement" of Fred Thompson's first outing. The debate itself was predictable, even mundane. Sunday's GOP debate on FOX is looking for a "reason" to sit through yet another cliché. The Sunday debate, we are told, is an opportunity to hear Ron Paul keep the others honest and perhaps we can witness his breakthrough. As one article claims, GOP Debate: Eyes on Ron Paul:Ron Paul, having tapped a Ross Perot populism, however entertaining, is still a sideshow. Is this really the reason one more debate matters?
Are there more debates or it just feels that way? In 2004 George Bush was not debating and democrats logged a fair number, but overall less than this cycle. In 2000, according to research published by Alan Schroeder (Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics, 5, 2000) there were twenty-two primary debates, sponsored or co-sponsored by media outlets (CNN had twelve). Compare that with more than twice that number in 2007.
The problem of too many debates is they are not importance enough to command attention. Sure they serve the "special interest hosts" like AARP, Gays, Value Voters, and the self promotion of network hosts, but they don't do their job with voters. An amusing portrayal of what voters are hearing from the debates is nicely captured in:
