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Giuliani Weekly Update 2-8-07

Big Issues for Rudy This Week:

-Almost/Sort of announced for the Presidency

-Is Rudy a real conservative? Too conservative? Not conservative enough?

-Rudy still ahead in the polls

-How much does the public know about Rudy's positions on social issues?  What difference will it make?

-High speech fees, money made from 9/11 experience may come back to bite him

OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN NEWS:

Giuliani does not have as strong of a web presence as Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Kucinich, Obama, Vilsack who have blogs and interactive chats, MySpace, Facebook and YouTube feeds, and campaign diaries.  Giuliani's website has basic record/bio info, as well as basic news statements, but none of them respond to criticisms in the press, nor do they explain why he has not declared for the Presidency.

New from the campaign: Rep. Cynthia Miller (R-MI) announces her support for Giuliani.

WHAT HIS OPPONENTS ARE SAYING:

Nothing.  His opponents haven't said anything this week about what's going on with Rudy.  He's been targeted by some Republicans who are not running, but not by his opponents, Dems or GOP.

NEWS FROM THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA:

The New York Post yesterday ran a cover photo in which Judy and Rudy Giuliani were kissing.  The headline said "RUDY CLINCHES."  The article had this to say:

"We still have to formally announce it and do a few more things, but this about as close as you're going to get," Giuliani said on Fox News Channel's "Hannity and Colmes" last night - hours after filing federal "statement of candidacy" papers.

"Today, we just took another step toward running for president," Giuliani added. "It's a big step, an important one.

Asked on the show if he's "in to win," Giuliani said, "Gosh, yeah. I mean, that's the only reason to do it."

The Chicago Tribune reported on an investigation they had done into Rudy's income after 9/11 while in the private sector.  Author Andrew Zajac finds that "Giuliani has leveraged his image as 'America's mayor' to his decided financial advantage and in ways that belie his man-of-the-people persona."  All of what Zajac has uncovered so far is perfectly legal, but the issue is how it will play with the voters.  Although nothing incredibly scandalous has come out yet, with more and more reporters and bloggers investigating Rudy's cash flow, we will probably see more stories like this one in the weeks and months to come.

Today, a Washington Post column by Howard Kurtz that mainly focused on Tim Russert's testimony in the Scooter Libby trial had an interesting insight to offer on Giuliani:

The McCain campaign held a call with bloggers, and Power Line's Paul Mirengoff lists some of the senator's problems. The most curable, he says, "is his stridency towards those with whom he disagrees. I noted that, as a high profile prosecutor and mayor, Rudy Giuliani was quite strident and 'in-your-face.' Many conservatives in New York still have mixed views about him. Yet since leaving office, Rudy has mastered the art of 'disagreeing without appearing disagreeable' and certainly without demonizing those on the other side. Thus, even when he's taking liberal positions on key social issues like abortion, he manages not to generate any more animosity than that which necessarily flows from his stand on the merits. This decidedly is not the case with McCain. I expressed the view that McCain needs to master the art of showing genuine respect for conservatives who disagree with him on issues of major importance."

WHAT'S UP IN THE BLOGOSPHERE:

Liberal Blogs

BooMan of the Booman Tribune pointed to a quote by Chris Matthews (video can be found here) dropping the f-bomb while praising Giuliani and bashing Bush:

"We love good mayors because we love our cities and Giuliani is the city guy, and I'm so sick of southern guys with ranches running this country. I want a guy to run for president who doesn't have a fucking -- I'm sorry, a ranch. Wouldn't that be good, Don, a guy who wasn't on the ranch during Katrina, he was on the street corner answering questions?"- Chris Matthews on Imus in the Morning

Unclaimed Territory blogger Glenn Greenwald wrote an insightful article arguing that "Giuliani is by far the most formidable, and most dangerous, Republican candidate, and the notion that he cannot win the Republican nomination is grounded in several myths."  In his analysis of the Republican base, Greenwald seems to be rooting for Giuliani and that could indicate that Giuliani has some pull with liberals as well.  

TPM Cafe has had a series of posts in the past week with lots of bad news for Rudy.  Most recently, they posted a video of Tom DeLay criticizing Rudy's position on abortion and gay marriage.  The upside is that DeLay also blasted McCain for not representing a majority of the Republican party.  
On Monday, they also reported on a poll (released in Crain's New York Business) that has Hillary beating Rudy by over 20 points in New York.  This could be potentially a large problem for Rudy, because New York City has been so central to his understanding of his identity as a politician and his campaigns and his book reflect this.  If he cannot win his home state, things could get messy for him.  However, he is the leading GOP candidate in New York, so this will likely not be an issue until after the primaries.  However, a TPM Cafe post on Tuesday reported more bad news for Giuliani.  The Family Research Council president Tony Perkins called Giuliani's views "far outside of the mainstream of conservative thought" and TPM's Eric Kleefeld said in his analysis that Perkins was basically saying that if Giuliani won the GOP nod then a Democrat would win the White House.

Liberal watchdog Media Matters For America posted a column disputing Washington Post columnist Howard Kurtz's February 6 online column's claims of heroism during 9/11 by reiterating the main points of a book written by Villiage Voice senior editor Wayne Barrett entitled Grand Illusion: The Untold Story of Rudy Giuliani and 9/11.  Media Matters said:

In Grand Illusion, Barrett and Collins suggested that Giuliani's status as "one of the heroes of 9/11" is far from "undeniable," as Media Matters has noted (here and here):

-The authors wrote that "Giuliani's preference for the comfort of a huge entourage had disconnected the city's management and its fighting force at a crucial moment" during the emergency response to the 9-11 attacks on the World Trade Center and pointed to Giuliani's former police commissioner Bernard Kerik as "a prime example of this managerial dysfunction all morning." They reported that in the 102 minutes between the first impact of a plane into the World Trade Center and the collapse of the North Tower, "Kerik became Giuliani's bodyguard, just as he had been in the 1993 mayoral campaign," rather than leading the police's efforts (Page 350).

-Barrett and Collins also wrote that, despite warnings from a previous police commissioner, Howard Safir, and NYPD chief operating officer Lou Anemone, Guiliani selected the 7 World Trade Center building to be the location of his Office of Emergency Management's (OEM) command center, "[r]ejecting an already secure, technologically advanced city facility across the Brooklyn Bridge" because Giuliani "insisted on a command center within walking distance of City Hall" (Page 41). But the OEM's command center, on the 23rd floor of 7 World Trade Center, was destroyed when the building collapsed on 9-11.

Conservative

On the right side of things, the blog Right Wing News reported on January 26 the "Right-Of-Center Bloggers Select The Most & Least Desired 2008 Republican Nominee (First Half Of 2007 Edition)."  Rudy was the second most desired (behind Newt Gingrich) and the sixth least desired, behind Hagel, McCain, Pataki, Tancredo, and Brownback.

Outside the Beltway's James Joyner posted that Giuliani's social views are not well known.  The post analyzes a Gallup poll and concludes that "'[o]nce informed of Giuliani's positions, a sizable minority of Republicans say they would reconsider their support.'"

Outside the Beltway also reported in a post about Edwards's bloggers that most campaigns are accepting "blogger relations" as an important part of their public image and that Giuliani has hired established blogger Patrick Ruffini.

Unqualified Offerings' Mona posted on January 25, 2007 that:

Rudy Giuliani is a real conservative, according to Steve Malanga at City Journal. Doesn't matter that he's pro-choice, pro-gay and anti-gun. Because he's pro-authority (and anti-welfare). Therefore, avers Malanga, social conservatives ought to support him.

Actually, Giuliani is an authoritarian. As well as pro-military-industrial complex and prison-industrial-complex.T hat he is good on a few social issues that please most liberals and libertarians (but his position on the right to bear arms certainly will not thrill a lot of these) does not overcome his view that laws, prosecutions and teeming prisons are the solution to what ails cities, states and the U.S.

While most conservatives are blasting Giuliani on his social views and asserting that he is not conservative enough, this conservative blog expresses the view that he is too far right on these gun control, crime and legal issues.  Giuliani will have to appeal to both the center-right and the far-right factions of his party in order to get the GOP nod.

Race42008 charges that Tom DeLay was not only hypocritical with his statements about Giuliani in his interview with Wolf Blitzer, but he was also outright lying.

Of Arms and The Law posted a transcript of an interview with Giuliani on gun control. Say Uncle quotes that same interview, and posts that:

A bit back, I thought Giuliani may have seen the light on guns. Or rather, he may have realized that to win in the red states with some adultery under his belt, he'd have to get some pro-gun street cred. Looks like that wasn't the case. He apparently thinks that there is a right to arms but some sort of "densely populated area" exception that squares his support for New York City's excessively restrictive gun laws. Well, restrictive if you're not a politician or famous actor.

Andrew Sullivan, responding yesterday to several quotes about Giuliani's social positions and their conservative-ness, says:

Giuliani is running as a secular, modern conservative to run what has become a religious, theological party. His fate is going to be a fascinating insight into what American conservatism can now mean. And the Christianists are not going to put up with secular, inclusive, reality-based conservatism.

The Right Reason in their latest post on Giuliani (which calls him a wop -- a word I was actually offended by) has a more pragmatic and long-term view of the bigger-picture politics:

His 'pro-choice' abortion stance will be a sticking point with many conservatives. But politics is always about the lesser or least of evils. It is a practical business in which one is a fool if one lets the pursuit of the best preclude the attainment of the good. To illustrate, if you refuse to vote for Giuliani over Hillary should they get the nods of their respective parties, because Giuliani is not perfect, then you give your tacit support to someone clearly worse. Holding out for a nonexistent candidate is senseless.

Moderate/Mixed/Impartial

The Economist's blog Democracy in America talks about the aforementioned Andrew Sullivan post:

ANDREW SULLIVAN cites the conventional wisdom on Rudy Giuliani today: the Republican party is now virtually the political wing of organised "Christianism", and the religious base will savage the secular, gay-friendly and abortion-rights-supporting New Yorker.  We share Mr Sullivan's concerns about the religious shift of the party, and its potential veto over Republican nominees.  

But perhaps someone who knows polls can explain why Mr Giuliani and John McCain continue to dominate every poll of Republicans?  The Fox, Time, CNN, ABC/Washington Post, Gallup and Zogby polls all say the exact same thing: these two, both famous for not exactly cuddling up to the evangelical base, are leagues ahead of the likes of Sam Brownback and Mitt Romney in the minds of Republican voters.

Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal explained last week the meanings that can be found in recent polling data on Giuliani.

2008 Central reports in their candidacy roundup that:

Giuliani posed for Harper's Bazaar with his wife, including some romantic pictures. There's two clear ideas behind this for Giuliani: attempt to gloss over his divorces by portraying himself in love, and secondly as this article notes, portray himself in the prime of his life to distinguish him from McCain, who would be 71 upon entering the White House.

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this is a really thorough roundup.

Be the debater you want to see.

by Ross Smith on 02/09/2007 01:05:36 AM EST