What to Expect: Research Results on Presidential Primary Debates
MSNBC will broadcast the first presidential primary debate of the 2008 campaign on April 26 from South Carolina. The first presidential primary debate was broadcast on radio in the Oregon primary of 1948 (Dewey v. Stassen). Content analysis of dozens of presidential primary debates from 1948-2004 has revealed several common qualities.
First, these debates feature mostly positive statements (64%), with fewer attacks (31%) and few defenses (which are refutations of attacks: 4%). Primary debates are more positive than general election debates (57% positive, 35% attacks, 8% defenses).
We also know that the contenders tend to attack the front-runner more than other candidates. This could explain why Governor Ronald Reagan in 1980 proposed the "golden rule": Thou shalt not attack your fellow-Republicans (as the front-runner, the other Republican candidates tended to attack Reagan). In fact, a candidates' position in the public opinion polls is a pretty good indication of how many attacks will target him or her: Most attacks are directed toward the front-runner and the fewest attacks toward the candidate at the bottom of the polls.
Usually, presidential primary candidates are more likely to attack each other (Democrats attacking Democrats and Republicans criticizing Republicans): after all, they have to defeat the other members of their own political party to win the nomination. However, 2004 was an exception to this rule as Democrats in their primary campaign attacked President Bush more than they attacked one another (apparently he was a uniter, not a divider, as far as the Democratic contenders were concerned).
We also know that news coverage of presidential primary debates focuses on the negative. Newspaper stories about these events mention attacks more often than candidates make attacks in debates; when candidates make positive statements, reporters are less likely to mention such statements in their stories. This effect is consistent.
We also have learned that presidential primary debates stress policy more than character, 68% to 32%. The stress on issues is even higher in general debates, 75% to 25%. In some years, news coverage has roughly the same balance between policy and character as in primary debates; in other campaigns, the news stresses character more, and policy less, than the candidates in their debates. Unlike news coverage's tendency to accentuate the negative, there is not a consistent emphasis on character. However, almost never does news coverage of debates discuss policy more than the candidates themselves.
William L. Benoit is a professor of Communication at the University of Missouri, author of several books on political campaigns including Communication in Political Campaigns (2007).
