Of Expectations and Tiers
Watching the early pitch on NBC Nightly News is just like watching the Superbowl pre game show. Brian Williams and Tim Russert set up the "contest" as if a champion will be crowned at the end of the night. Russert has just laid out the expectations game that purports to define the standards that the media and pundits will use to determine winners and losers tonight. Russert puts Clinton, Obama, and Edwards in his "first tier." For these candidates, the focus is on not making mistakes. Hillary cannot appear aloof, Obama must show mastery of policy specifics, and Edwards must square his lifestyle with his concern for poverty (Russert).
Placed in the "second tier" are Richardson, who needs to show his executive experience, Biden, whose partition plan for Iraq needs to be shown to be the only realistic solution, and Dodd, who needs to emphasize his bipartisan, legislative experience (Russert). Again, all of these claims are according to Russert and become "conventional wisdom prior to the debate.
Do the democrats have a plan to beat the expectations game? Read more...
: Democratic Primaries 2008, South Carolina, Presidential Debates, Media
While each campaign has every incentive to plot strategy that will appeal to the different standards set forth in "conventional wisdom," senate scheduling carries the possibility that the democrats tonight could claim a more united front by transforming a potentially divisive debate into one that is more of a continuation of the debate against the Bush administration. Since the Iraq timetable passed this afternoon, and the four senators in tonight's debate have all been reported to be "rushing to the event in South Carolina," the potential exists for the event to focus much more narrowly on the larger debate between the democrats and the Bush administration. Why not? It is too early for the party to begin internicine warfare, and Bush will veto the Iraq legislation as soon as he receives it focusing the debate once more on the choice that favors all Democrats.
So, the question is, will the expectations game and the chance to score early fundraising and tracking poll victories lead the Democrats to play to conventional wisdom or will a more unified focus keeping pressure on Bush emerge? It is a classic problem of collective action, and it is a difficult choice in debate strategy terms.
