The political context.
The setting has great significance: Republican candidates have been falling over themselves to claim inheritance of the Reagan legacy. The public's perception of post-WWII history is most favorable to Reagan and most unfavorable to Bush 43.

The Republican candidates' political difficulty begins with the fact that George W. Bush's standing with the public has him stuck in the low to mid 30% range for more than a year now. Couple that with the fact that 75% of Republicans still approve of Bush. Frontrunners with an eye to the general election must not appear too cozy with Bush; but no Republican can afford to distance themeselves too far from the activist Republican base that comprises the winning margin in primaries. While the Democrats could take advantage of the fact that their base's views on top issues like Iraq and health care are in alignment with the views of a sizable majority of independents and of virtually all Democrats, Republican candidates have no such luxury as a look at the issues shows.

But before we even look at the issues, there are two more shadows, ghosts, to consider. Yes, there are ten candidates at this debate. But there are two others who won't be there: Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich. Both have polled well enough to be considered among the top tier. Both are waiting. Thompson is quite active now, and it looks like he may be in by "summer" (whenever that is). Newt has said he will wait until fall. But as long as there is dissatisfaction (an inevitability given the generic difficulty of the political position GOP candidates are in) voters and critics will compare the flesh and blood debaters to the absent idealized candidates, Reagan, Thompson, and Gingrich. The real usually loses to the ideal. Fred Thompson is in reality a "McCain Republican" who, as long as he is not in the race, is being seen as the alternative to McCain, an idealized inheritor of the Reagan mantle..

The Issues.
Though it may not be a big one, stem cells is representative of the GOP dilemna. Nancy Reagan (joined by a solid majority of Americans) is an advocate of loosening restrictions on embryonic stem cell research while social conservatives make no moral distinction between blastocysts and late term embryos.

Other social issues like abortion and GLBT rights have been trouble for the frontrunners. Romney ran against Kennedy for U.S. Senate and took a moderate to liberal position then. Giuliani has been on record for government funded and late term abortions. McCain has been distrusted by social conservatives for years despite his conservative record. The "darkhorses" are social conservatives, each trying to claim to be a "real" conservative.

Immigration is another issue that divides the GOP and the candidates. "McCain/Kennedy" was the name of the Senate version of the bill that would enact what moderates and Bush call "comprehensive" immigration reform. Giuliani came out in favor of such a plan yesterday. Brownback was a co-sponsor of Mccain/Kennedy but has since backed away. Tancredo is running almost a single issue campaign in opposition to what he calls the "amnesty" plans of the moderates. He will have Duncan Hunter and others on his side.

Iraq is also divisive. Brownback opposed the surge that McCain and Bush were fror. Ron Paul is running almost entirely as an anti-war libertarian. Romney and Giuliani like to be tough but vague, while Duncan Hunter is all about his hawkishness and military experience.

Energy and climate change is another divisive issue in the GOP. McCain has long favored a cap and trade scheme for carbon emmissions while Giuliani is now being tied to "lobbyists for polluters" in today's New York Times. But a sizable chunk of the GOP are still climate skeptics.

Elephants in the Room.
"Elephants in the Room" was Brian Williams's label for the segment of the Democratic debate when he asked questions that, in my opinion, were not truly weighing on the minds of voters, questions like the price of Edwards's haircut, the ethics of a donor to Obama years ago whose name no one can remember, and whether or not Biden can be concise.

If Chris Matthews has a similar segment the candidates should use humor with the pun and talk about taking the high road. But if I were a candidate's coach I would get ready for the worst:
McCain and Giuliani have records as adulterers. Giuliani has questionable connections to Bernard Kerik other shadowy New York and New Jersey figures.

Romney is a Mormon "flip-flopper" (and he makes sure you know the others are, too) whose favorite novel is by scientoligist L. Ron Hubbard. He exaggerated his hunting record, etc.

Hell, I'm sick of this part already. The real question is whether or not Matthews and the Politico.com questioners will go for the dirt. Brian Williams stuck at least his toe into that dirty pool. We'll see whether criticism of him is heard or whether his approach is taken as precedent.

Format and Audience.
The format will be much like the format last week, with multiple questions, not all questions going to all candidates, and short answer times of from one minute to 30 seconds. Alan Coverstone has the best analysis on the format I have read. Let's just hop ethey ditch the "raise your hand if" questions (but if they have one, please let it be, "Do you believe in evolution.").

Questions, whether about evolution, torture, or other unconfortable issues are being submitted and voted on by the online audience at Politico.com. The liberal blogosphere is trying to "freep" (online ballot stuffing pioneered by the right wing Free Republic bloggers) the polls on what should be asked.

The audience is not California primary voters. The California primary system for the Republican party is designed to reward grassroots organizing, not debate success or media buys, as the popular vote will not determine the allocation of delegates. The audience uppermost in candidate's minds is the media and national viewer. Potential donors are also very important (especially to McCain?).

Concluding thoughts.
The Republican candidates have more than one Gravel/Kucinich to play the gadfly depending on the issue. They don't even need a gadfly since they have plenty on which even the more established candidates disagree. Look for the ratio of attacks to positive statements to be higher in the GOP debates than in the Democratic ones even if both are in line with Bill Benoit's research findings.

While contrast was often hard to elicit in last week's Democratic debate, the setting and memory of Ronald Reagan is contrast enough for the GOP candidates to contend with. It will be hard for them to obey Reagan's "Eleventh Commandment" even as they pay homage to his memory.