Des Moines GOP Debate Preview: 90-Minutes to Midnight for McCain?
ABC kicks off the first of its two scheduled debates between the major party presidential candidates tomorrow morning with live coverage of the GOP forum from the campus of Drake University in Des Moines, IA beginning at 8:00 am CST (check local listings). The debate will be moderated by "This Week" anchor George Stephanopoulos and will include questions from David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register.
Although this will be the 4th such exchange between the GOP candidates (still sans Fred Thompson), ABC is hyping it as the "first Presidential Debate of the 2008 cycle." While it might be the first "network" debate (if CNN, MSNBC, and FOX aren't really networks), it is certainly NOT the first debate. To prepare for the Des Moines round, you might want to catch up by checking out some of our coverage of the three previous meetings:
New Hampshire (6-5-07)
South Carolina (5-15-07)
California (5-3-07)
The real spin on tomorrow's debate almost universally focuses on John McCain, whose campaign imploded little more than a month ago. Senior staff resignations and dismissals, flagging fundraising, unpopular positions on Iraq and immigration, and low poll numbers all point to the fact that the one-time frontrunner has his work cut out for him in Des Moines.
Some say this is McCain's last best chance to salvage his campaign with a "Hail Mary" pass. As Dan Balz notes in On the Trail, "[McCain's] performance on the stage in Des Moines this weekend will offer some important insights into his energy level, his determination and into whether having been singed by the immigration debate, he has begun to change his message."
So, if we buy the spin and aren't too wary of reductionism, what will McCain need to do to "win" this round?
: debate, debates, Des Moines, republican presidential primary, ABC, This Week, George Stephanopoulos, John McCain, Hard Call
In this debate coach's mind, McCain needs to start (re)making the case for the "hard call." It's what endeared him to so many in 2000. It's what has gotten him into trouble over the past year. And, it's the only play he has left.
(Co)Incidentally, that's the title/topic of a new
book from McCain (and co-author/senior advisor Mark Salter) due to hit bookstores soon (you can order your .
The "hard call" strategy allows McCain to identify the single most important trait (which apparently includes: Awareness, Timing, Foresight, Confidence, Humility, Inspiration) of the next president while explaining away the unpopular positions he himself has taken (e.g. Iraq and immigration). The enthymeme works like this: if the next president needs to be able to make the hard call AND John McCain is the only candidate who has demonstrated over and over again that he is "courageous" enough to do so, THEN John McCain should be president.
Whether or not this strategy will work or whether or not the McCain campaign is even considering it as their "A strategy" remains to be seen. If they are, we can expect McCain's answers to approximate the following topoi (at every turn):
I've made the hard call (over, and over, and over again).
(All) Others (in both parties) haven't made the hard call.
Hard calls (always) turn out to be right.
So, whether it's a question about Iraq, immigration, health care, ethics, education, ethanol, or some other issue - McCain needs to find a way to work that formula into each of his 30 second answers. The difficulty (aside from making those three moves in a 30-second sound bite), of course, lies in proving that hard calls turn out to be right. To do so, McCain will need to utilize evidence that is both contemporary and historical. In this regard, recent "reports" from Iraq, and a freshly minted manuscript at least give him something to work with.
Starting tomorrow, and continuing through to the end of his campaign, McCain's last best argument is the argument for the hard call. How capable he can be at making this case will ultimately determine his "short-term" political fate. And though he is down, he is certainly not yet out. If he is successful, the "hard call" strategy offers one way to tap into the divergent yet interrelated themes of "change" and "experience" around which the 2008 presidential campaign appears to pivot.
If I were coaching McCain's opponent's for tomorrow's debate, I would spend at least a few minutes practicing my lines about why the "hard call" often turns out to be the "wrong call."
Tune in tomorrow morning!
