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Debate Shifts

This debate does seem to move pretty dramatically on Iraq. Clinton has clearly adjusted her "best of all worlds" position on Iraq into an Obama co-opting opposition to Iraq. She erased almost all distinction between her position and his tonight.

It's the economy, stupid.

Polls have been showing that the Iraq issue is fading compared to economic concern. Clinton's campaign clearly seems to feel that the risk of shifting positions to a much more strident anti-war position (all troops out in a year, except Embassy guards, etc.) by attacking Bush. Given the clever stirring of the spat prior to this debate (over the racial questions), Obama had to tone down his attacks, so that he could not accuse her of flip flopping.

This move neutralized the issue that works best for Obama (especially motivating young energy). The rhetorical ground then shifted to the question of who is best prepared to deal with the economy. That plays to Hillary's stimulus package, allowing her to give something to everyone and focus heavily on the sub-prime market to show the evils of special interests, etc.

So, her goal is clearly to focus on her (read Bill Clinton's) experience with the economy in the 1990's.

This debate seems to lead to the same kind of campaign that Bill ran in 1992. Don't like recessions, vote for a Clinton.

Argumentatively, Obama needs an answer to that. His answer is that he has a better chance to get some fix in place than Hillary does with a massive stimulus/spending package. But, that's a hard case to make, and he is not all that centered on it here. In short, Hillary wins if it's the economy, and Barack needs to make it the possibility of success.

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The Obama campaign seems like they are one step behind.  The tenor and tone of tonight's debate changed things considerably and MSNBC is running with the Clinton campaign's talking points about the  night.  Obama and Edwards talking heads did little in the post debate rap session to divert the message.

by Tim ODonnell on 01/15/2008 11:43:14 PM EST