Participation Criteria.
On the Democratic side, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden dropped out after weak showings in New Hampshire. The field for the debate tonight was further reduced by ABC's criteria described by the AP:

Candidates had to meet at least one of three criteria: place first through fourth in Iowa, poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four major New Hampshire surveys, or poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four major national surveys.

Although he did not object when the criteria were first announced, Dennis Kucinich has since filed a complaint with the FCC. Here are the first two paragaphs of his press release which I received yesterday:

The Kucinich for President campaign late today filed an emergency complaint with the Federal Communications Commission claiming that the ABC television network "is violating its obligation to operate in the public interest" by excluding Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich from tomorrow night's scheduled debate in Manchester, NH.

Further, the complaint charges, the televised event "is not a true presidential primary debate without including all credible candidates, but instead is effectively an endorsement of the candidates selected by ABC." The filing also notes that ABC "is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Walt Disney, Co., whose executives have contributed heavily to other Democratic presidential primary candidates, including Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, former Senator John Edwards, and Governor Bill Richardson."

Although Ron Paul is slated to participate in the FOX News debate in Myrtle Beach, SC, January 10, FOX News has simply eliminated Ron Paul in NH (along with Duncan Hunter) in spite of the fact that he has outraised most candidates, finished fifth in Iowa ahead of Rudy Giuliani, and is polling high enough for third or fourth in New Hampshire. Fox claims they do not have enough room in the production trailer they will broadcast from! Fred Thompson, who is not even campaigning in New Hampshire is a big man and may be taking up too much space.

So, Ron Paul will simply buy an hour of air time tomorrow night "because [he can] afford it.". It's a shame, however, since Paul actually provides an anti-war and pro-liberty foil for the otherwise more homogeneous GOP field. If it's a debate you want, it seems silly to exclude the most dissenting voice.

The New Hampshire Republican party is displeased, too, since they were a co-sponsor. Today the party withdrew their sponsorship.

Formats and Moderators.
Charles Gibson of ABC will moderate both of tonight's debates and Chris Wallace will do the honors for FOX. I have not seen much about the FOX format yet, but all three debates will have more time to dig into specifics since there are fewer candidates.

Gibson may be overly optimistic. He hopes he can just toss out some big issues and that the candidates will pursue them in a less structured way. Howard Kurtz reports that, "[T]he format will be a bit unorthodox. Gibson plans to devote the first 45 minutes of each debate to three big topics -- different for each party -- and basically let the candidates go at it."

The more open ended section will be followed by thirty minutes of the short answer format we have become familiar with. The final 15 minutes will be used to just focus on questions unique to individual candidates ("gotcha" time?).

ABC has a big preview story here.

The Dynamics

Democrats need to stop Obama. Obama needs to avoid a major gaffe. It is that simple. But it is also very difficult because Obama has ridden a wave of good feeling -- attacking him may appear especially unkind and play into his criticism of the cynicism of "politics as usual." He can, in effect, use Reagan's, "There you go again."

The Clinton campaign hinted yesterday they may go negative then said today that they would not. Edwards is saying that he is part of proof that Clinton has been rejected so every time he asserts why he has done well it also fits with Obama's positives. Edwards is attacking Obama from the left and the Clinton campaign hinted they may attack from the right. Sounds great for Obama since he can say that proves he is a unifier.

It is unclear what role Bill Richardson will play. Maybe he can say he is the one who stands for experience and change. He will get a chance to distinguish himself again as the only one in favor of complete withdrawal from Iraq. But Obama can say he was the only one against the war from the beginning.

Republicans are all spectators and participants in the Romney versus McCain showdown. Long awaited, the battle had been predicted for debates as early as last spring. But with their attack and counter-attack ads now airing and with New Hampshire looking like a must win state for both of them, the two favorites to win on Tuesday each needs to do well tonight and would love to see the other wounded.

Rudy Giuliani needs to remind people he exists from time to time before the Florida primary which he claims will be his real electoral deabut. Fred Thompson can crow about getting third in Iowa without really seeming to try too hard, but that's not an argument he wants to use.

Huckabee, though he just won Iowa, is unlikely to be attacked like Obama since Huckabee is not the favorite in New Hampshire. Look for the usual, folksy, charming Huckabee to find ways to sound like the voice of reason when the others get too feisty.

Issues.

After the Iowa DMR debates where debating was almost disallowed and contentious issues were ruled out, tonight's debates may provide an update on issues of import.

In foreign policy, the Iraq situation is claimed to be much different now in the "post-surge" environment; Pakistan instability has increased; climate talks were held; Iran has offered to deal; North Korea is late with nuclear deal compliance, and Kenya is an emerging hot spot.

Domestically, recession fears are increasing, with the housing market is still crashing, oil prices at $100 per barrel, and the dollar in decline.

There is a lot to debate about. If the moderators focus on the issues above we can discover much about the candidates' ability to keep up with the world they want to lead.

If, instead of issues questions, we get "Horse race" questions ("How do you explain your poor showing in Iowa?") Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich will not have missed much.