The ongoing debate-about-debate initiated by the Clinton campaigna week agocontinues, turning up the heat with a new ad running in Wisconsin that chides Obama for ducking voters. The jury is out on which campaign will win this round, but the move further illustrates how debates interact with campaigns.
The unknown factor is the effect, if any, the spot will have on actual voters. Voters have lives and may not know the context privy to political insiders and junkies. The ad asks they conclude Obama has spurned Wisconsin or has something to hide.
It also may be the case that the ad will make little sense when voters are seeing Obama on every newscast greeting Wisconsin voters. Simple word-of-mouth from the tens of thousands of Obama rally attendees (17,000 in Madison alone) may reach even the least involved voter. In the age of news and more news, when candidate speeches are viewed by millions on-line, the proportion of voters who "don't have a clue" is a rapidly shrinking.
Round 3: Practical effects of debate-about-debates below
Over the last thirty years there are many examples of the "empty chair" ads indicting candidates for not accepting debates. There is little evidence these ads are particularly effective. Many times they are seen as negative campaigning and just another example of "strategies" that turn voters off to the process.
"Common wisdom" holds, when behind call for debates. while "risky," debates can focus choice, abate momentum, and change the topic. The Clinton campaign made the move seemingly to stop the bleeding and bring Wisconsin into play.
The heat is turned up and has observable effects on the campaign, some of the most obvious on the Clinton campaign itself.
Wisconsin Counts:
The ad is also a sign the Clinton campaign is still aiming for a strong showing in Wisconsin next Tuesday, despite the fact it is devoting much of its resources to the Ohio and Texas primaries a week later.
Clinton will spend the weekend and continue to the vote on Tuesday in Wisconsin. Saying talking to the voters than being AWOL in Texas becomes untenable.
When you run an attack ad against your opponent for refusing to compete in a debate, you can't very well bow out of one yourself. So today, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign said that she would participate in a debate sponsored by MSNBC in Cleveland, Ohio.
Ultimately, the campaign decides it's getting more mileage out of the debate theme than out of the war with MSNBC.
Voter Backlash:
In responding to the ad Obama's strategist David Axelrod said, "We've debated 18 times, we're going to debate two more, but we've got other business to do here in terms of meeting voters face to face." It is possible that voters will also conclude enough is enough.
Reading commentary blog stories suggests the narrative is out there that the Wisconsin call for yet another debate is simply excess. As "Scott" typically writes
Let's hope Wisconsin people are smart enough to see through this desperate plea. What a joke. He's debating her in 2 weeks and again a week after that. He doesn't want to give you any more free air time. Why doesn't Hillary sell us on her vision of a better America? She seems incapable of doing anything other than attack, attack, attack. No to the Professor. Yes to a President.
AD TEXT:
ANNCR: Both Democratic candidates were invited to a televised debate here
in Wisconsin.
Hillary Clinton has said yes.
Barack Obama hasn't.
Maybe he'd prefer to give speeches than have to answer questions.
Like why Hillary Clinton has the only health care plan that covers every
American, and the only economic plan that freezes foreclosures.
Wisconsin deserves to hear BOTH candidates debate the issues that matter.
