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A Blizzard Predicted - Handicapping Tonight's Democratic Cleveland Debate

The weather forecast for Cleveland tonight is another brutal winter day with eight inches of snow. Many predictions for the debate from Cleveland State University at 9-10:30 on MSNBC (ET) hint that the encounter will be equally nasty.

On the trail over the weekend Hillary Clinton threw down the gauntlet with the line "Meet me in Ohio and let's have a debate about your tactics and your behavior in this campaign." [earlier blog entry on challenge]

Certainly there is much to debate given the "issues" dominating the contest since a Texas debate last Tuesday: Mailers, costumes, celestial intervention, utopia vs. "get real,' commander-in-chief, Union & 527 advertising. If the debate devolves into a debate of "tactics" it would indeed provide fireworks. The press would love that debate but it is unlikely, not serving either candidate's purpose.  

Also unlikely is a repeat of the Texas love-fest with negligible policy distinction. Smooth sailing does little to recast the choice, suggesting the Clinton campaign cannot afford mixed story-lines of attack and cooperation. The latter will undoubtedly be Obama's motif, only leaving Clinton to continue the assault if the race is to be impacted.

Assessing media predictions - after the fold.

The New York Times is looking for a "Fight Night."

The Wall Street Journal leads with ". . . what could be the most important debate in her political career," exploring the tension between attacking and reconciling.

Politico.com notes "At Tuesday night's debate in Ohio, aides are mapping plans for drawing persistent attention to Obama's record without attempting any knockout punch theatrics that could backfire."  

The Columbus Dispatch punches the debates importance, "Nineteen debates later, tonight's 20th in Cleveland is the biggest."

Cleveland Plain Dealer offers the most complete viewers guide to the debate, discussing mechanics and likely topics.

USA Today gives insight into a different setting from the intimate set in Texas.

What to Expect in the Debate:

In the end no one knows what will happen in the Ohio debate. The Obama campaign is typically tightlipped as to their choices. The candidate himself offered yesterday"

Asked whether he expected a more combative debate, Obama said, "My goal continues to be presenting my case to be president; I'm not in this to tear anyone down. We have some differences on policy."

Some Clinton insiders were more on point as reported in the Washington Post  .

When Amy Chozick of the Wall Street Journal asked about how combative Clinton would be in tonight's debate with Obama, Singer informed her that it was an "absurd" question. "I don't think . . . any of our senior people have the ESP skills that you all ascribe to us," he said.

Pundits, of course are not deterred from prediction. As quoted in the Columbus Dispatch.  

Bill Carrick, a Los Angeles-based Democratic consultant . . . aid Obama, who has defined himself as a candidate of hope and unity, "would like to avoid a food fight" but almost certainly will press Clinton on the contentious issue of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Obama has criticized Clinton for supporting the trade agreement that he says has cost Ohio jobs. Clinton has accused Obama of distorting her position on NAFTA.

Brad Coker, managing director of Washington-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, said Clinton probably will try "to draw blood" in the debate.
"I'm expecting the punches to start flying in this debate because at this point if she loses Texas and Ohio, she's really done for," Coker said. "She has to put him back on his heels. If she doesn't do it, she's just running up the white flag ...


One topic almost certain to be aired is the heated NAFTA debate, the stimulus for the Hillary "Bring it On" commentary. Surely Tim Russert cannot resist playing back video clips and asking for response.  
The Columbus Dispatch  ran a story yesterday that frames some of the charges and counter charges via NAFTA the will receive comment tonight.

Barack Obama continued yesterday to hammer Hillary Clinton in Ohio over the North American Free Trade Agreement, saying Clinton is trying to distance herself from the trade deal despite what he called essentially presenting herself as "co-president" with her husband in the 1990s.
Bill Clinton, campaigning about 25 miles from where Obama was speaking at rally in Toledo, accused the Bush administration of failing to uphold standards protecting workers and the environment that were negotiated as part of the agreement.

Obama: "The notion that you can selectively pick what you take credit for and then run away from what isn't politically convenient, that doesn't make sense," Obama said after speaking to workers at National Gypsum in Lorain, which makes wallboard for construction projects.

Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson rejected the notion that Hillary Clinton was a "co-president," saying: "That's not a title that Sen. Clinton or her husband would accept as valid."


Also see David Sirota's summary of the trade debate on the Huffington Post.

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