Tag: preview
Pyrotechnics from Long Island -Previewing Debate III
The time is NOW! Expect a more lively debate tonight when McCain and Obama meet for their third and final debate at Hofstra University.
The campaign and the economy show signs of chaos. Why would the debate be otherwise? Previewing the first two presidential debates I envisaged practically sedate affairs. And that largely is what we witnessed.
Civility was required not just by the human dimension of how voters evaluate candidates, formats, and enormity of making a miscue, but also made sense within the existing political landscape. The campaigns were still in range of each other awaiting an economic verdict.
Two debates later the political world is a different place. And McCain cannot wait any longer. A repeat of the first two debates--competent, courteous, with each candidate speaking the language of their faithful--would be a win for Obama, cementing trends. McCain needs a seismic shift.
There are three basics that, short of a mistake beyond evocation, make McCain's task difficult. They also are the reasons, despite constraints, we cannot rule out real fireworks.
The Narrative is set:
Two debates (and one VP debate) have established the plot line. The candidates did their jobs, resulting in ties, which became within days noteworthy voter preference for Obama/Biden. You can quibble with this account, but it has legs, and by extension dominion over the last debate.
McCain needs to trump this by "changing the rules," advancing a sustained surgical attack. Risky? Sure. But it is time to roll the dice.
Format & After-Life below fold
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: Hofstra University, preview, 3rd Presidential debate, McCain, narratives
Mississippi Definitions
Throw most of the of tonight's debate preview stories out the window (but do see also Ross Smith's extensive, hot off the press preview just below). In the last three days the political landscape has transformed in essential ways.
Who has a memorable misstep, who wears the right tie, which exceeds expectations all matter, of course, but not in the same way they did when the Ole Miss debate was hyped as politically seismic.
Two events fundamentally change the narrative: McCain's "suspension" of his campaign and the economic "crisis" on Wall Street.
Debate Held Hostage
McCain's placing the debate in doubt, whether bold or erratic, diminishes the importance of strategic minutia. We recognized we'd be just fine if the debate were canceled, reminding us that the stage is much larger than the one in the Ford Center, Oxford Mississippi.
And the new landscape from Wall Street, to corridors of power in Washington, to rebellious Main Street is more serious than another campaign event, however outsized.
Winning the Debate
A day ago I advised to the candidates to not be risky, but to take some risks. To be attuned to ways their messages will be parsed, used and misused. I think my advice today is much simpler. The candidate who wins the debate tonight is the one who can concisely define who we are and where we are as Americans.
Ronald Reagan crystallize voters sentiment when he asks in his 1980 debate with Carter, "Are you better off then you were four years ago." Uncertainty pervades the election in ways not imaginable before the credit meltdown. Which candidate can memorably answer these questions?
- What is happening with the American economy?
- What just took place on Wall Street and in Washington?
- What ought the future to look like?
- What does leadership mean in this world?
The Responsibility at Hand
The winning candidate needs to transcend the petty, define the exigencies, and enact the bipartisan mantle both camps seek. Tonight's debate is certainly important but for different reasons than last week.
It presents a unique opportunity to rhetorically construct reality much like we remember Franklin Roosevelt's redefining another banking crisis in his first fireside chat from the White House, March 12, 1933.
"After all there is an element in the readjustment of our financial system more important than currency, more important than gold, and that is the confidence of the people. Confidence and courage are the essentials of success in carrying out our plan. You people must have faith; you must not be stampeded by rumors or guesses. Let us unite in banishing fear. . .
It is your problem no less than it is mine. Together we cannot fail."
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: Univ of Mississipi debate, preview, rhetorical challenge, advice, presidential debate
A Blizzard Predicted - Handicapping Tonight's Democratic Cleveland Debate
The weather forecast for Cleveland tonight is another brutal winter day with eight inches of snow. Many predictions for the debate from Cleveland State University at 9-10:30 on MSNBC (ET) hint that the encounter will be equally nasty.
On the trail over the weekend Hillary Clinton threw down the gauntlet with the line "Meet me in Ohio and let's have a debate about your tactics and your behavior in this campaign." [earlier blog entry on challenge]
Certainly there is much to debate given the "issues" dominating the contest since a Texas debate last Tuesday: Mailers, costumes, celestial intervention, utopia vs. "get real,' commander-in-chief, Union & 527 advertising. If the debate devolves into a debate of "tactics" it would indeed provide fireworks. The press would love that debate but it is unlikely, not serving either candidate's purpose.
Also unlikely is a repeat of the Texas love-fest with negligible policy distinction. Smooth sailing does little to recast the choice, suggesting the Clinton campaign cannot afford mixed story-lines of attack and cooperation. The latter will undoubtedly be Obama's motif, only leaving Clinton to continue the assault if the race is to be impacted.
Assessing media predictions - after the fold.
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: Ohio, democratic debate, preview, media coverage, NAFTA
"Setting Expectations" - Sparks May Fly in Tuesday Ohio Debate
I was wrong; the Texas conciliatory debate did not signal, as I wrote, a reduction in negativity by the Clinton Campaign. Attacks on Obama have notched up and are directly signally the tone and content for the MSNBC debate to be held Tuesday in Ohio.
At a campaign event today Hillary Clinton challenged Obama mailers in a strident tone:
"Meet me in Ohio, and let's have a debate about your tactics."
She compared "Obama to President Bush during the rally, suggesting the country had already taken a gamble on an inexperienced candidate who promised change."
The democratic reunion, alluded to in the Texas debate closing statement, seemed out the window. Clinton's closing statement received more positive press than she has enjoyed in weeks, but is at odds with her retort to reporters following an Ohio stop.
Below the fold, Video of full Clinton Statement , analysis of the ongoing "Mailer" debate, Video Obama response, and Video bloggers respond.
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: Ohio debate, expectation, Clinton, Preview, Democratic debate
Preview - A Debate as Big as Texas? Tuesday 8 PM (ET)
CNN, Univision Communications Inc. and the Texas Democratic Party in conjunction with the Lyndon B. Johnson Foundation will host a Democratic presidential primary debate on Thursday, Feb. 21. The program will air live from the LBJ Auditorium at the University of Texas in Austin on CNN and on CNN International from 8 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. (ET). CNN’s Campbell Brown will moderate with their John King and Univision’s Jorge Ramos helping ask the questions.
The CNN press release touts their hosting, oh, and incidentally it may have something to do with the election.
It is the ninth presidential primary debate sponsored by CNN this cycle. CNN's debates in 2007 and 2008 have been among the most-watched in cable news history.
There is surprisingly little news about the debate in media outlets. Even
CNNPolitics.com is muted in the hype (often promoted on air, however). There may be reasons including other political news crowding out the debate and the debate "belongs" to CNN so don't promote competitors.
Analysis below fold
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: Democratic debate, Clinton, Obama, CNN, preview, Austin
Hillary vs. Barack: Tonight's Hollywood Feature - "Spoiling for a fight?"
The last two standing, Clinton and Obama, face off tonight, CNN 8:00 pm (EST), at the Kodak Theater in Hollywood, Calif., home of the Academy Awards. Highland and Hollywood, the Kodak's address, is close in proximity to Simi Valley's Reagan Library, but worlds away. The GOP debate held last night and Democratic debate tonight will be back-to-back on the schedule but may be light years away in character.
"Spoiling for a fight" may best describe what the media is looking for in, arguably, the long primary season's most important debate. However, overt confrontation would be a disservice for both candidates. Momentum, feeding or stemming, seems more important than sanctioning more news cycles of "petty sparing."
The Clinton camp has reason to nip speculation of defensiveness or worry; the Obama camp risks conceding the high ground that underwrites his very rationale.
Other media outlets are also previewing tonight's debate.
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: Democratic debate, CNN, Preview, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, expectations
Reagan Library Take Two: Preview and Liveblog
Nearly nine months ago I previewed the "GOP Debate Debut in the Shadow of Reagan," as ten candidates were vying to inherit Reagan's mantle.
Tonight, the same scene, the Reagan Library in Simi, California, with Air Force One as the dramatic backdrop, has fewer actors and the script now has one of them, John McCain cast as the front-runner.
McCain reminds voters that he was a "foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution" by way of asserting his conservative bona fides.
Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul have one last chance to debate the merits of McCain's claim.
In the comments I will liveblog their efforts and John McCain's debut as the candidate with the right to invoke Reagan's 11th commandment, "Thou shall not speak ill of any Republican."
The debate airs live on CNN the web at 8pm ET, is moderated by Anderson Cooper, and co-sponsored by Politico.com. You can go to politico to submit questions and to vote for questions.
You can prepare yourself for watching the debate by reading David William's excellent compilation of tips for watching.
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: debate, debates, California, CNN, republican presidential primary, elections 2008, preview, liveblog
Des Moines Register Debates Round Two Preview: Democrats
After getting our hopes up and having them dashed yesterday, it's tough to preview today's Democratic version of yesterday's disaster. Since most of the blame lies with the moderator and the format, today's Des Moines Register debate might not be much better, but a few factors offer hope.
First, there are three fewer candidates, and no Alan Keyes. Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson are the debaters. Dennis Kucinich did not meet the sponsor's criteria and complained with a press release, but his grounds for complaint are weak as Jason Zengerle explains.
Fewer candidates could mean longer time given to each answer, more follow ups, and/or more total questions. If the last is the adaptation, the debate will be no better than yesterday's.
Second, the moderator and her employers surely cannot have escaped the stinging and nearly unanimous rebuke of those who watched or participated. Maybe, just maybe, some crow will be eaten and the format and moderation will be improved.
Third, the candidates can learn from yesterday. They might run roughshod over the moderator knowing the media is sympathetic. They can exploit the rules to attack without naming names and to demand answers. They can "frontload" their sound bites to adapt to the very short response times. They can question the question, question the premise, and use "go backs" (go back to an earlier issue after being very brief in reply to a current one).
On the other hand, the poor format and weak moderator also allow candidates to avoid debating if they choose. They might bet on little follow up and not name names so as not to elicit a rebuttal. This afternoon we'll hear a debate if the Democrats want one and the moderator allows it.
To see for yourself at 2pm EST:
Tune in to Iowa Public Television, CNN, C-SPAN3, Fox News Channel, C-SPAN Radio or Fox News Radio.
You can also watch via the web at C-SPAN 3 or at the Des Moines Register website
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: debate, debates, democratic presidential primary, Des Moines Register, preview, Iowa
Flurry of Debates Continues Tonight
[Update] Liveblogging the Brown and Black Forum in the thread below. Join us for comments on the off chance you get the Sirius feed or have HDNET.
Update [2007-12-1 15:12:8 by Ross Smith]: Happening as I type, the "Heartland Presidential Forum" which is "not a debate" but is a three hour forum with the Democratic candidates being interviewed for 20 minutes each. Stream and preview. Long day for the Dems.
Tonight's "Black and Brown Presidential Forum" in Iowa is the second of a flurry of five debates in the thirteen days that began with Wednesday's GOP CNN/YouTube debate.
The DesMoines Register reports the basics of tonight's event which has been held quadrennially starting in 1984:
This year's edition will be at 7 p.m. [CST] at North High School in Des Moines, and will be telecast live nationally by HDNet, a high-definition television network. It will be simulcast in Iowa and surrounding states by cable company Mediacom's "Connections" channel. Sirius satellite radio also will carry it.
The forum moderators will be Michele Norris, host of National Public Radio's "All Things Considered" newsmagazine, and Ray Suarez, a senior correspondent for "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer" on PBS.
In addition, newsman Dan Rather, who appeared with Ford and Campos, will be the host of a preview show on HDNet half an hour before the forum begins, and will conduct an analysis of it afterward.
Activists are questioning the fairness of tonight's event, claiming the organizers have favored Hillary Clinton.
Daily Kos and
Iowa Independent have details.
The debate schedule continues Tuesday, November 4 from 1-3pm CST with NPR's radio debate for Democrats.
The following week begins with the GOP Univision Debate Sunday, December 9 at the University of Miami (Florida). That debate, broadcast in Spanish and focused on issues of concern to Hispanics, was canceled earlier in the year when most of the GOP contenders refused to commit to it.
Wednesday and Thursday, December 12 and 13, the Republican and then the Democratic candidates will participate in debates sponsored by the Des Moines Register. These debates were originally to be held in early January, but were moved up when the Iowa caucuses were moved to January 3.
Democratic candidates were also scheduled to debate in Los Angeles on December 10 in a nationally televised debate on CBS which was canceled because of a strike by CBS news writers.
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: debate, debates, preview, Iowa, minority issues, democratic presidential primeary, elections 2008
"It's All about Anderson" - Hyping the GOP CNN-YouTube Debate
Turn to the last page of the November 26-December 3 issue of U.S. News and World Report and you will find an advertisement hawking the upcoming GOP CNN-YouTube debate, airing Wednesday Nov 28 at 8 pm (EST).
I have observed before how the debates have become property of news outlets. CNN, in my observation, is the most obvious (and obnoxious), in making the debate about themselves, the candidates be damned. Surely it is unfair to say "It's all about Anderson" because it really is about CNN. A critical reading of the advertisement seems fair in this post-modern era and makes the point better than another lament. The network is the judge, jury, and executioner even in its promotion.
Five observations about the visuals and copy speak to the relationship between the messenger and the message.
To View the ad Click here. |
| DebateScoop |
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: GOP debate, CNN-YouTube, ownership, Anderson Cooper, Wolf Blitzer, preview
No Thompsons Tonight
There will be no Thompsons among the eight GOP presidential hopefuls as they take the stage for the 90 minute debate from The University of New Hampshire broadcast on FOX News this evening at 9:00 p.m., moderated by Britt Hume.
Tommy Thompson dropped out of the race a little more than a week after the last debate held in Des Moines. Ames straw poll results the week after that debate ratified the judgments of his debate performances.
Fred Thompson just got into the race. Or did he? He set up an "exploratory committee" months ago, his name has been included in polls for months, and his absence was noted as long ago as the first of these debates back in May.
Does participation matter? Will Fred be hurt by not participating? There is a debate about this question.
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: debate, debates, Republican presidential primary, FOX, New Hampshire, elections 2008, participation, moderator, preview
